October inflation reading positive for borrowers and savers

Inflation in October turned out to be the lowest since December 2010. Data provided by the Central Statistical Office are positive from the point of view of those in debt and those who save on deposits.

In the case of borrowers paying back housing loans , they confirm the legitimacy of the cycle of interest rate cuts initiated by the Monetary Policy Council in November.

At the same time, they speak for a further systematic decline in the 3-month Wibor rate, which is the basis for calculating interest rates by banks. On the other hand, the savers have made it possible to earn real yearly deposits in October for the first time in 22 months.

In October, the increase in prices of consumer goods and services amounted to 3.4% on an annual basis against 3.8% in September. In this approach, the largest impact on inflation was due to the 4.6% increase in housing-related charges, the 4.9% increase in food prices and the 6.0% upward movement in transport-related costs. These categories combined conquered the inflation rate by 2.81 percentage points.

Annual deposits finally made real earnings


October was the first month since December 2010 with a real positive interest rate on deposits made a year ago. Nominally on funds deposited in October 2011 for a period of 12 months, Poles earned on average 4.38% (NBP data), and in real terms, i.e. after deducting Belka’s tax from this profit and after adjusting it for inflation, they gained 0.15% of them. During the previous 21 months, Poles had real losses on annual deposits, reaching even 1.45%. We faced such a situation in May 2011, when inflation amounted to 5.0% y / y.

Considering the assumption of an annual deposit at the moment and assuming inflation for November next year for security at the current level of 3.4%, its interest rate must be equal to at least 4.20%, if we only want to avoid price increases or higher, if you plan to earn extra on your financial resources.

On the other hand


If the inflation level assumed by the NBP for the next year to be 2.5% (central path of inflation projection from November this year) is assumed for the above calculations, then to get zero out of the funds deposited on the annual deposit, it is sufficient to set up a deposit at 3.09 %.

There should be no problems with this, as there is no problem finding the offers of banks with interest rates on annual deposits of 6% and above.